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Research & Investment Strategy

10 February 2020

Coronavirus – tracking the path, anticipating the impact

Just over a month since the new coronavirus – known as 2019-nCoV – was officially recognised there is only so much we can say about its likely impact. However, we can examine some plaus ...

Macro insights

04 February 2020

Coronavirus: First thoughts on the potential economic impact on China

Since the first case was reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO) on 31 December, the 2019-nCoV virus has spread at an exponential rate.

Macro insights

14 November 2019

UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?

The General Election on 12 December will set the course for the UK’s exit – or not – from the European Union and the next phase of Brexit.

Macro insights

04 November 2019

US GDP beats expectations, Fed cuts rates and UK Parliament agrees to December election

Last week was a big one for the US. Third quarter (Q3) GDP came in at 1.9%, modestly above our own 1.8% forecast and firmer than the consensus expectation of 1.6%.

Macro insights

28 October 2019

Fed expected to cut rates for third time in a big week of economic data

The economy forces its way onto the US centre stage this week. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision and give a press conference on Wednesday evening.

Macro insights

21 October 2019

Chinese growth at three-decade low, Brexit deal agreed but uncertainty continues

Better September data not enough to arrest China’s growth slowdown. A moderate recovery in September activity failed to prevent China’s GDP growth from falling to 6% - its lowest in almost three deca ...

Macro insights

14 October 2019

Negotiations on trade and Brexit continue, but has progress been made?

Trade tensions will continue to dominate the economic outlook. The coming week’s Empire State and Philadelphia Federal surveys will provide the first estimates of October’s US manufacturing activity.

Macro insights

07 October 2019

Global economic slowdown underlined by weak sector data

The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week.

Macro insights

30 September 2019

US and UK political drama, contrasting signals from China and Eurozone PMIs

Impeachment deliberations will be uppermost in US political debates following the Democrat move last week to conduct an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump.