Investment Institute
Macroeconomics

The unequal impact of inflation: How governments are responding


Key points: 

  • Inflation has reached multi-decade highs in most economies, driven by rising food and energy prices
  • Different economies face different inflation rates – as do differing income groups and individuals
  • Low-income households typically spend proportionally more on energy and food; they are disproportionately affected by inflation and less likely to have a savings cushion
  • Governments have been quick to respond. Looking at the four largest Eurozone economies and the UK, measures began a year ago but have increased since February. They have accelerated further recently and we expect more to be announced over the coming months
  • The latest measures have drifted from the least economically distortive approach. If this drift continues it risks conflicting with other longer-term goals of price and fiscal stability and emissions reductions
  • The latest measures have not recognised the distributional impact of the energy shock. The longer-term distributional impact will be a complex mix of receding inflation, rising interest rates and recession

Inflation impacts low incomes hardest

Inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in most international economies, both developing and emerging. Most recently it has been driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has significantly impacted food and energy prices. However, beyond the headline measures of inflation, the effect of rising food and energy prices typically has a greater impact on lower-income countries, households and individuals.

In this paper we examine the differential impact of inflation on different income groups and consider how governments have responded. Government policies have increasingly moved from an initial tendency of targeted and income-based support, to something which is now looking more general and price-based. This creates tension with other longer-term goals such as price and fiscal stability and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions.

With high energy prices likely to persist, we fully expect additional fiscal announcements over the coming months, particularly from Eurozone economies. However, we review the measures that have been announced to date and consider some of the implications for income distribution.

Read the full article
Download article (406 KB)
Investment Institute

Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions

Visit the investment institute

Subscribe to the responsible investing newsletter

SUBSCRIBE NOW
Subscribe to updates.

    Disclaimer

    This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.

    It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.

    All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.

    Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.

    Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate London EC2N 4BQ

    In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.

    Back to top
    Are you a Professional Investor ?

    This website is available in English only and directed at professional, institutional or qualified investors. It is not suitable for retail investors. As such, some of the funds, products and services described on this website are not available for retail investors under the MiFID II (Directive 2014/65/UE). By pressing accept you confirm that you are a professional investor and agree to AXA Investment Managers' Legal Information and Terms of Use.