February Global Macro Monthly - Policy Rules and Monetary Tools
Key points
- US growth exceptionalism persists and despite softer retail activity in January there are few signs of the slowdown we continue to expect.
- Activity has softened elsewhere. The Eurozone saw GDP flat in Q4, just avoiding recession, but manufacturing continued to struggle. The UK entered technical recession in Q4 but should rebound in Q1. Japan also fell into recession in H2 2023.
- China weakness weighed on stock market activity but has prompted fiscal and now monetary stimulus. Despite China, broader Asian growth remains solid. This has not been the case for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries.
- Inflation has fallen back globally, but we expect a stickier patch over the coming quarters in developed economies.
- We continue to forecast developed central bank rate cuts from around mid-year. Following a marked repricing, market views now broadly align with our own.
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Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.
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