Poles to the polls at a crossroad
- 28 September 2023 (7 min read)
Key points
• The incumbent PiS-led coalition is seeking re-election after eight years in power. Its public support has diminished but it retains a modest lead in the polls
• But polls suggest a stalemate with the incumbent and opposition coalitions likely failing to reach a majority in the lower house of the Parliament. The pre-election debate has drifted towards more fractious social topics
• Fiscal slippage in 2023 is likely after an acceleration in populist measures in the run-up to elections. Any 2024 fiscal consolidation looks questionable given election pledges by all parties. Poland could be under the EU’s excessive deficit procedure next year
• Tensions with the EU have been escalating: The ongoing rule-of-law issue blocking the disbursement of EU funds, the EU migration pact, Ukraine grain ban, and military spending on Ukraine are all flash points for the Polish government
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities.
It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date.
All information in this document is established on data made public by official providers of economic and market statistics. AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.
Furthermore, due to the subjective nature of these opinions and analysis, these data, projections, forecasts, anticipations, hypothesis, etc. are not necessary used or followed by AXA IM’s portfolio management teams or its affiliates, who may act based on their own opinions. Any reproduction of this information, in whole or in part is, unless otherwise authorised by AXA IM, prohibited.
Issued in the UK by AXA Investment Managers UK Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Registered in England and Wales No: 01431068. Registered Office: 22 Bishopsgate London EC2N 4BQ
In other jurisdictions, this document is issued by AXA Investment Managers SA’s affiliates in those countries.