US 2024 presidential election preview: Trump faces new adversary
- 26 July 2024 (10 min read)
Former President Donald Trump had been enjoying a lead in the polls, albeit a small one for many months. However, his lead increased after June’s televised debate raised further concerns about President Joe Biden’s fitness for re-election. After weeks of soul-searching, President Biden announced he would not stand for re-election and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. This was no coronation, but with Democrat heavyweights quickly joining in to also endorse Harris, Democrat hopes to avoid a messy selection seem to have been met, with Harris the likely nominee. Polls conducted immediately after have shown Harris doing slightly better than Biden – even leading Trump in one poll. But we are cautious of whether such early polling will persist and on balance consider the likelihood of Trump regaining office as most likely, while acknowledging that Harris’ entry makes this less certain.
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