Outlook 2024
Mid-cycle adjustment, not end-cycle crash
Download the full outlookFor 2024 we expect lower growth, lower inflation and limited interest rate easing. We expect global GDP growth will reach 2.8%, down from an expected 3.0% in 2023 but anticipate acceleration in 2025. 2024 will be significant politically with the US Presidential Election likely to be most consequential globally.
What should investors expect in 2024?
Two questions are likely to be on investors’ minds as we enter 2024 – can bonds shake off their losing streak and can equities maintain their momentum? We believe they both can. However, the prospect of better performance for bonds relative to equities is greater than in recent years. We look at what 2024 could mean for investors.
There will only be limited scope for rate cuts until there is evidence of easing labour market pressures.
Our Investment Institute external Advisory Committee members share their expertise on the macroeconomic and climate-related opportunities and challenges for the year ahead.
Podcast: Outlook 2024
Explore what the year ahead could mean for investors and for the Net Zero transition in this podcast with AXA IM's David Page and Chris Iggo; and Economist, and CEO and Co-Founder of Chronos Sustainability, Dr. Rory Sullivan.
US outlook
The US economy looks set to slow in 2024, though avoid recession, ahead of November’s Presidential election.
Eurozone outlook
Lacklustre growth looks set to persist against a backdrop of weaker demand and a mild rise in unemployment.
China outlook
China’s reliance on central government stimulus is delivering an unbalanced economy, and the upswings look set to fade into 2025.
UK outlook
After a tough year, the UK is expected to be on the cusp of recession in 2024, with modest growth in 2025.
Japan outlook
Japan is edging towards a turning point in its battle with deflation, though economic growth is likely to slow.
Emerging markets outlook
Softer global growth and tight financial condition are likely to prove headwinds for emerging markets in 2024.
Disclaimer
This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments as per MIF Directive (2014/65/EU), nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy or sell any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal or tax advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalized recommendation to buy or sell securities. The strategies discussed in this document may not be available in your jurisdiction.
Due to its simplification, this document is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that forecasts made will come to pass. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this document is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this document. Whilst every care is taken, no representation or warranty (including liability towards third parties), express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information contained herein. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the recipient. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision.